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Exhibit 648

Webinar Transcript: Farm Income and Financial Forecasts, September 2026 Update

Exhibit 648 ยท Agency presentation

Webinar Transcript: Farm Income and Financial Forecasts, September 2026 Update

However, most of the forecast increase in government payments in 2026 is expected to come from Farm Bill commodity programs, where payments are triggered by lower prices or revenue.

ERS staff explain the September 2026 forecast: direct government payments forecast to rise $19.5 billion in 2026, with ARC and PLC payments of about $15 billion under the 2025 reconciliation law's higher reference prices, and ad hoc programs (Farmer Bridge Assistance, Assistance for Specialty Crop Farmers, American Relief Act of 2025 payments). ERS also reports net insurance payments and direct payments relative to net farm income: net income less these payments is forecast to fall $34 billion, or 26 percent, from 2025 to 2026.

Source
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
Date
3 September 2026
Quoted from
Transcript p. 5
Grade
Primary record
Document
https://www.ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2026_09_03%20Webinar%20Transcript_Farm%20Income.pdf
Accessed
2026-11-09
Cited by
Findings citing this exhibit

Cited by

Finding AGR-3.1
Primary record ERS reports $27.9 billion in direct government payments to farm operations in 2025 and forecasts $47.4 billion for 2026, the largest nominal total in its series, which begins in 1933. The payments were 7.9 percent of net farm income in 2024 and are forecast at 29.9 percent in 2026.
Finding AGR-3.12
Primary record P.L. 119-21 (4 July 2025) set higher statutory reference prices from crop year 2025, allocated up to 30,000,000 additional base acres, raised the payment limit from $125,000 to $155,000 with inflation indexing, and defined partnerships, S corporations and LLCs as qualified pass-through entities. It also raised the premium subsidy for area-based crop insurance coverage from 65 to 80 percent and raised five other premium support rates by 3 to 5 percentage points.