The Lacuna Project

lacuna (n.) a gap in a record where something should be

Independent research. Not affiliated with any government, agency, or company.

Patterns

Failure pays

An official body finds that an institution failed. The next documents show more money, a new office or a larger program.

Intelligence, after 9/11

The 9/11 Commission reported on 22 July 2004 that the attacks "revealed four kinds of failures: in imagination, policy, capabilities, and management" Exhibit 321. It recommended replacing the Director of Central Intelligence with a National Intelligence Director. Congress established the Director of National Intelligence on 17 December 2004, 148 days later Exhibit 1257.

From 2007 the Director of National Intelligence disclosed the annual appropriation for the National Intelligence Program.

Fiscal yearAppropriation disclosedReleasedSource
2007$43.5 billion30 Oct 2007Exhibit 1258
2008$47.5 billion28 Oct 2008Exhibit 1259
2009$49.8 billion30 Oct 2009Exhibit 1260
2010$53.1 billion28 Oct 2010Exhibit 1261

The Pentagon, after each disclaimer

The Defense Department Inspector General issued a disclaimer of opinion on the department's financial statements in each of fiscal years 2018 through 2025. Defense total obligational authority, in current dollars, rose in the year after four of the first six disclaimers and fell after two Exhibit 1264.

Defense total obligational authority, millions of current dollars, including war funding
Fiscal year auditedDisclaimer issuedThat yearNext year
201815 Nov 2018672,960693,001
201915 Nov 2019693,001725,757
202016 Nov 2020725,757711,039
202115 Nov 2021711,039769,467
202216 Nov 2022769,467858,262
202315 Nov 2023858,262817,508 (continuing-resolution level)

The disclaimers are in the Inspector General's reports for each year; The Audit lists them.

Afghanistan, after the findings

SIGAR's September 2017 report on the Afghan security forces lists 12 key findings. The first is that the U.S. government was ill-prepared for the size and scope of the security sector assistance program Exhibit 1265. SIGAR's quarterly reports track the cumulative total appropriated for reconstruction.

Report dateTotal appropriated since 2002Source
30 Oct 2017about $120.78 billionExhibit 1266
30 Jul 2021more than $144.98 billionExhibit 1267

Drug approval, after the unfinished trials

On 29 September 2022, the HHS Inspector General reported that of all 278 drug applications granted accelerated approval, 104 had incomplete confirmatory trials Exhibit 097. On 30 September 2022, Congress reauthorized the prescription drug user-fee program through 1 October 2027 Exhibit 1268. The earlier authorization covered fiscal years through 2022, so the date follows the statute's own calendar. FDA's target fee revenue then rose each year.

Fiscal yearTarget revenueSource
FY2022$1,200,129,000Exhibit 1270
FY2023$1,310,319,000Exhibit 1271
FY2024$1,422,104,000Exhibit 1272

Congress also acted on the finding. In December 2022 it gave FDA authority to require that confirmatory studies be under way when it grants accelerated approval Exhibit 1269.

The F-35

GAO reported on 15 April 2024 that the F-35 fleet's availability had trended downward considerably over five years, and that none of the variants were meeting availability goals Exhibit 337. In June 2026 GAO reported that the F-35 Joint Program Office estimated, in October 2025, that the military services would need roughly $13.7 billion more for sustainment over fiscal years 2026 through 2031 than previously planned Exhibit 346. That is an estimate of need, not an appropriation.

The SEC, after Bear Stearns

On 25 September 2008 the SEC's Inspector General reported that the Commission's supervision program for investment bank holding companies "failed to carry out its mission" in its oversight of Bear Stearns Exhibit 1254. The report states that it does not demonstrate a direct connection to Bear Stearns' collapse. On 21 July 2010, the Dodd-Frank Act authorized SEC appropriations of $1.3 billion for fiscal year 2011, rising to $2.25 billion for 2015 Exhibit 782. The SEC's own budget justification puts the fiscal year 2010 appropriation at $1.11 billion Exhibit 1256. An authorization is a ceiling Congress sets, not money appropriated.

What the record shows

In each case an official body found that the institution failed. In each case the documents that follow show resources, offices or authority going to the same institution or its successor.

The documents show the sequence. They do not show that the failure caused the increase. They show that the failure did not stop it.

An institution that is paid whether or not it succeeds has little reason to change what it does. The Incentive Loop sets out how, and Why It Runs Itself describes the crisis, reform and renewal cycle these cases follow.